LPL Research

In the spirit of Halloween, we discuss some of the tricks and treats that might spook the
markets between now and year-end.

U.S. stocks gained for a third straight week, and the S&P 500 Index brushed record highs.

The stock market has started October on a bumpy path. Many global issues remain unresolved, but seasonal forces, sound fundamentals, and breakthroughs on the trade and geopolitical1 fronts could help sustain the S&P 500 Index at record highs. Volatility can be uncomfortable, but we remain confident enough in domestic fundamentals that we would recommend suitable investors use any potential pullbacks to consider buying or rebalancing equity positions

U.S. stocks gained this week, making another run at all-time highs as investors watched global developments, and third quarter earnings season kicked off.

We have maintained our S&P 500 Index year-end fair value target of 3,000, even as the index hovers near that level following recent progress on U.S.-China trade discussions.

Corporate earnings growth has ground to a halt, but we think better times lie ahead. While tariffs and ongoing trade uncertainty could delay improvement, we remain optimistic that some progress on trade will be forthcoming and earnings growth could pick up over the coming quarters.

Stocks rallied on trade optimism late in the week, erasing the S&P 500 Index’s 2% loss through Tuesday

Continued economic growth and Fed rate cuts helped support stocks amid ongoing trade uncertainty.

Economic data improves in September.

Geopolitical matters1 have complicated the tug-of-war between fiscal2 and monetary3 policies and contributed to investor concerns about increased policy uncertainty. Policy uncertainty will likely persist, but we think financial markets will climb this wall of worry.