LPL Research

Our April letter comments on the S&P 500 Index’s strong first quarter and steady but slower GDP growth.

This week we share our “Final Four Factors” for the stock market in 2019: 1-Policy, 2-the
Economy, 3-Rates, and 4-Profits.

A rebound in global conditions, capital expenditures, and sentiment may help fuel growth.

Last week, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the 3-month yield for the first time since 2007.

Following the stock market’s recent move higher, coupled with a slightly weaker economic and corporate profit outlook, the risk-reward trade-off in stocks has become less attractive.

No changes.

WEC Description: February’s job growth was disappointing, but it followed the biggest two-month gain since 2016.

Small cap stocks have performed well so far in 2019; however, we
believe the environment is getting tougher.

U.S. economic data were sound in February, even as confidence fell amid uncertainty from global trade and political headwinds.

Following such a strong rally since the December 24 lows, a pullback is reasonable to expect.